I've written before about the avian flu that's sweeping parts of Asia. The latest update about the flu's status does not bode well.
First of all, it turns out that there have been repeated negative tests for patients who were eventually found to be infected. This suggests several things: that the current tests are inadequate; that this virus, the H5N1 virus, mutates quickly; and that there may be many more infected people than is currently suspected.
Second, and even more alarming, is the news that there may finally be a confirmed case of human-to-human transmission of the virus; all previous cases, with one possible exception, have been bird-to-human transmission. In the current case, three brothers in the same family have been diagnosed. It is possible that all three were infected from eating the same bird; however, the second brother did not fall ill until two weeks after his older brother, for whom he had been caring, and the third brother's diagnosis was even later. So there is a strong likelihood that the brothers have infected each other.
Airborne transmission is what will make the H5N1 virus a real disaster. As Charles says in this post, the
average flu has a mortality rate of 1%. The great flu epidemic of 1918, which killed over a million people worldwide, had a mortality rate of 2% - 5%. The H5N1 virus has a mortality rate of about
70%. If it does mutate into an easily transmittable human-to-human form, we are in deep trouble. (Remember, in 1918 we didn't have widespread air travel.)
Our best protection against infection is the
NanoMask. It filters airborne particles of a significantly smaller size than other masks, and also forms a tight seal around the face, unlike most masks. It is reusable, with a replaceable filter, and is currently available for order by phone (702-558-5164) for only $4 (thanks to
Melanie for the info). If an epidemic hits, expect demand to exceed supply, and expect the price to go up. If you belong to an at-risk group, or you work with or care for a member or members of an at-risk group, it's worth the investment to buy one (or more) of these now.
I'm deeply grateful to Melanie and Charles at Just a Bump in the Beltway for tracking this story, which is being largely ignored by the U.S. press. I will keep you informed of any updates as they come along.
Update: The press is finally
paying some attention. U.S. health officials have plans including quarantine and rationing of vaccine. Death estimates range from a conservative 2 to 7 million people, to as many as 50 million people, depending on the rate of infection and availability/effectiveness of vaccines. As Melanie points out, a serious epidemic could disrupt basic services, including banks and stores; so if you starting hearing that the avian flu is spreading, get ready to batten down the hatches, with essential supplies and cash on hand, as if you were going to wait out a massive snowstorm or other natural disaster.
Update II: Melanie, in comments, corrects my stats on the 1918 epidemic; it killed somewhere from 50 to 100 million people worldwide--at a 2% to 5% fatality rate. If the H5N1 virus mutates into a form that's easily spread from person to person, while retaining its current fatality rate of 70% . . . well, you do the math.