Not depressed enough with the election and the looming economic crisis? Well, there's a
flu pandemic on the horizon, too:
A global pandemic of avian influenza is "very, very likely" and could kill tens of millions of people worldwide, a top World Health Organization official said Monday.
Governments should be prepared to close schools, office buildings and factories in case of a pandemic, and should work out emergency staffing to prevent a breakdown in basic public services like electricity and transport, said Dr. Shigeru Omi, the organization's regional director for Asia and the Pacific.
Such arrangements may be needed if the disease infects 25 to 30 percent of the world's population, Omi said. That is the World Health Organization's estimate for what could happen if the disease - found mainly in chickens, ducks and other birds - develops the ability to spread easily from person to person.
Deaths associated with the rapid spread of a new form of influenza would be high, he said. "We are talking at least 2 to 7 million, maybe more - 20 million or 50 million, or in the worst case, 100" million, he said.
While many influenza experts have discussed similar figures privately, Omi's remarks represented the first time a top public health official had given such an estimate in public. < . . . >
A few analysts have suggested that the death toll could be considerably higher. Dr. Henry Niman, a medical researcher in Pittsburgh who criticizes the World Health Organization as being too conservative, said that with more than 70 percent of the human victims of the disease dying so far, the death toll could exceed one billion if the disease were to spread rapidly among people.
But Omi [ . . . ] pointed out that the high death rate recorded so far might be overstated, because people with less severe cases of the disease might not be diagnosed as having it. < . . . >
The World Health Organization, a Geneva-based UN agency, has reported 44 confirmed human cases of A(H5N1), 32 of whom have died, a 72.7 percent rate. The organization has identified only one case of probable human-to-human transmission - a mother who cradled her dying daughter all night - while the rest of the cases appeared to have been acquired directly from animals.
Researchers have been struggling to determine how and whether the disease might develop the ability to spread easily from person to person through the air the same way human influenza viruses do. Omi said that it was becoming more and more likely that the virus would develop the ability to spread among people for several reasons.
The virus has proved highly versatile in mixing genetic material with other viruses, he said. The disease has recently developed the ability to survive in domesticated ducks and be excreted in large quantities without making the ducks sick, making it hard for farmers to know which birds to cull.
Omi declined to predict when the virus might spread to people, but noted that winter was the most dangerous time for influenza viruses and that human cases had already started appearing this autumn, whereas last winter they did not start to appear until January.
The good news? Yes, there is a bit of it. Saline nasal inhalations appear to be effective in reducing the spread of germs, including viruses:
Inhaling a salt-water aerosol, a treatment often used for asthma, may also reduce the spread of germs that can spread disease, according to a new report.
People suffering from a variety of illnesses exhale bacteria and viruses which can spread disease to others.
Some people, apparently, exhale a lot more infectious particles than do others:
Those producing 500 or more particles per liter of air were considered high-producers.
The patients were given a six-minute inhalation of aerosol salt-water solution, a treatment often used for asthma patients.
Tests during the following six hours showed a sharp reduction in the number of particles exhaled by the high-producing individuals.
Since there's no way for you to know whether you're a high-producer, err on the side of caution. Don't have access to asthma treatments, or they're too expensive? Buy some saline nasal spray, over the counter. I use it to keep me from getting sinus infections--just a couple of squirts per day does the trick, and the asthma treatments seem to work on the same principle.
Wouldn't it be marvelous if such a simple thing helped prevent a worldwide flu epidemic, or at least kept you and yours safer? If you're at high risk for flu, talk to your doctor about what equipment is needed for the asthma treatment, and where you'd get it and the saline solution--probably a medical supply store would sell what you need.
If you're not normally at risk, buy some spray anyway, and use it religiously. At the very least, it'll keep away colds and sinus infections. And it just might save your life.